The Malaysian aircraft destruction is tragic, but not unique. Commercial Airliners have been shot down before. \u00a0In 1983 the Soviet air defense fighters shot down a Korean Airlines 747 that had strayed off course, impinged on Soviet airspace and the Soviet Air Defense presumably mistaking the aircraft for an American surveillance aircraft, downed it. \u00a0The completely bungled the aftermath by denying it and then the US let on that we had collected all the communications and we went on to play them in the UN Security Council. (I happened to be the State Dept. analyst who accompanied Ambassador Jeanne Kirkpatrick during this Council meeting.)<\/p>\n
The US mistakenly shot down an Iranian civilian Airbus (killing about 300) during the Iran Iraq war when the US was patrolling the Gulf to protect oil shipping. \u00a0The USS Vincennes fired in error and it was a tragic disaster, but the US admitted it.<\/p>\n
The Malaysian case will play out similar to the Korean incident. \u00a0The Russians will not be so boneheaded and deny the event. \u00a0What happened will be clear from intelligence sources and the investigation. \u00a0What Russian and Ukraine will be doing is making responsibility as murky as possible. \u00a0 Intercepted communications will drive this.<\/p>\n
One point that does stick out from the events of yesterday. \u00a0The White House declared that President Obama learned of the event during a phone call with Vladimir Putin on Sanctions. \u00a0This is amazing. \u00a0The Intelligence Community, which has lots of technical collection in the area (recall we still watch for Russian nuclear missile launches to warn of sudden attack among other things) must have seen this virtually in real time…but for some reason, no one \u00a0passed the word to the President? \u00a0Maybe they thought he wouldn’t care? \u00a0 Maybe the message got tied up in the DNI bureaucracy? \u00a0Maybe the White House staff held it up? \u00a0Maybe they just dismissed it as a non-threat incident? \u00a0There is a story there that would be interesting to read.<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Malaysian aircraft destruction is tragic, but not unique. Commercial Airliners have been shot down before. \u00a0In 1983 the Soviet air defense fighters shot down a Korean Airlines 747 that had strayed off course, impinged on Soviet airspace and the … Continue reading