{"id":326,"date":"2015-10-11T23:37:32","date_gmt":"2015-10-11T23:37:32","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/?p=326"},"modified":"2015-10-11T23:37:32","modified_gmt":"2015-10-11T23:37:32","slug":"iranian-general-killed-in-syria-us-iran-policy-nuclear-deal-prospects","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/?p=326","title":{"rendered":"Iranian General Killed in Syria – US Iran Policy – Nuclear Deal Prospects"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Iran nuclear deal would be a whole lot more palatable if we had a clear picture of a robust Iran strategy that included actions to punish the part of the Iranian government that has killed so many Americans.<\/strong>\u00a0 Nuclear negotiations with Rouhani are OK, but the security brief is more in Kamenei’s hands and through them to the IRGC.\u00a0 The IRGC is the real driver of Iranian security actions and they are acting against the US and its friends and allies directly.\u00a0 I have argued that accompanying the carrot of the nuclear agreement should be a tough stick for those who kill Americans.\u00a0 Why should we treat the al Quds force of the IRGC any differently than al Qa’ida?\u00a0 They have been responsible for hundreds of American deaths.\u00a0 Why should we not treat them in the same fashion? \u00a0 Maybe we will…<\/p>\n

Last Friday (October 9, 2015) it was reported by Iran media that Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani was killed in Syria by ISIS.\u00a0 It would be nice if more of these leaders were taken off the battlefield as they say.\u00a0 Hamedani, was reported to be a very close deputy to Qasem Solemeini, the Qods force commander.\u00a0 I don’t know if Iran is certain it was ISIS that was responsible for the death of Hamdani, but it wouldn’t hurt if they wondered if the US was somehow connected.\u00a0 Watch this space.\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Back to the Nuclear deal.\u00a0 I wrote a piece for Politico in September 9 (http:\/\/www.politico.com\/magazine\/story\/2015\/09\/a-nuclear-inspectors-view-give-the-iran-deal-a-shot-213128) saying that the Iran nuclear deal might work….for a while.\u00a0 I highlighted again that we will soon<\/em> <\/strong>get a powerful indication of how things would work.\u00a0 Iran, by October 15th is meant to have responded to IAEA road map requirements to disclose details related to their nuclear weaponization program.\u00a0 Tehran has denied these efforts though the international community and even the IAEA believe they took place. (See the November 8, 2011 IAEA report which has an incredibly detailed description of the people, places, things, etc. related to a weaponization program.)<\/p>\n

The IAEA will report to its Board of Governors and the UN Security Council on December 15th regarding their assessment.\u00a0 At that time we will know if Iran is starting with a big lie, and<\/strong> we will know how tough IAEA reporting will be.\u00a0 AND we will see how tough the US and other P-5 + 1 parties intend to be.\u00a0 Don’t expect much. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

Certainly Putin will not want to see the deal blow up before sanctions are further loosened.\u00a0 The US will also not want to blow up the deal even though it begins with a lie.\u00a0 Kerry has already said, the past doesn’t matter, it’s only important what Iran does in the future.\u00a0 He states we already know what Iran did whether the admit it or not doesn’t matter.\u00a0\u00a0 Somehow, that doesn’t sound right.<\/p>\n

So my take is the deal may buy some time.\u00a0 How much?\u00a0 I bet on the short side.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Iran nuclear deal would be a whole lot more palatable if we had a clear picture of a robust Iran strategy that included actions to punish the part of the Iranian government that has killed so many Americans.\u00a0 Nuclear … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,71,61,65,19,74],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=326"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":327,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/326\/revisions\/327"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=326"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=326"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=326"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}