{"id":334,"date":"2016-01-08T15:55:44","date_gmt":"2016-01-08T15:55:44","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/?p=334"},"modified":"2016-01-08T15:55:44","modified_gmt":"2016-01-08T15:55:44","slug":"isis-cw-attacks-in-europe-or-beyond","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/?p=334","title":{"rendered":"ISIS CW Attacks in Europe or Beyond?"},"content":{"rendered":"

In 2016, ISIS may once again take its terror out of the region of its \u201ccaliphate.\u201d<\/strong>\u00a0 It had success in Paris last November and is losing ground in Iraq.\u00a0 Watch out for a new horror\u2014they may take chemical attacks overseas\u2014to the far enemy as Al Qa\u2019ida would call it\u2014Washington must ratchet up concern for chemical weapons attacks.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Reports in the last two months state ISIS has used mustard agent and aspires to produce its own chemical agents including the nerve agent sarin (http:\/\/bigstory.ap.org\/article\/b6c721d1beb34b989bf46aa101cf361a\/iraqi-us-officials-working-produce-chemical-weapons<\/a>). \u00a0These risks are credible and serious.<\/p>\n

Recall that the progenitor of ISIS, Mussab al Zarkawi planned and almost successfully executed a massive attack against Jordanian government buildings in April 2004.\u00a0 He planned to lace the explosives with poisonous chemicals.<\/strong>\u00a0 He was only thwarted by incredible skill and luck on the part of the Jordanian intelligence services\u2014using methods and knowledge unavailable in the US.\u00a0 (See Joby Warrick\u2019s recent book\u00a0 \u201cBlack Flags: The Rise of ISIS\u201d for a great discussion of this near disaster.)<\/p>\n

On the one hand, this underlines the importance of the success of removing the Syrian government’s large CW stockpile<\/strong> following the agreement between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Secretary of State John Kerry in September 2013. \u00a0Imagine if those stocks fell into the hands of ISIS?\u00a0 The UN and the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) did an extraordinary job implementing this agreement. However, there are still instances of the use of chlorine as a rudimentary chemical agent and, a fact-finding mission of the OPCW has now reported a confirmed use of mustard agent (though they have not attributed who was responsible).<\/p>\n

While the Syrian stocks appear to have been accounted for fully, this was not the only path to chemical weapons for ISIS. \u00a0They might, (and possibly have) obtained access to undeclared residual stocks from the Libyan arsenal.\u00a0 The Libyan inventory was declared destroyed by international weapons inspectors last year.\u00a0 This may be, but unexpected stores have been discovered in Libya before. \u00a0Now that Libya is in chaos, weapons inspection teams are unable to work there. \u00a0It is possible that mustard chemical weapons used by ISIS in Syria followed the path of Libyan conventional weapons once Qaddafi’s government collapsed.<\/p>\n

Worse is the potential for ISIS to produce their own nerve agent. \u00a0ISIS has the will (demonstrated in their own statements and actions) and they probably have or can obtain the capability–at least to produce moderate quantities of sarin. \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

To produce sarin (or other chemical agents) four things are needed:\u00a0 a secure space; some laboratory facilities; chemical expertise; and, chemical precursors.<\/p>\n

ISIS controls territory with substantial infrastructure (something Al Qa’ida never has). \u00a0Certainly within a city like Mosul Iraq, they can set up a secure facility capable of producing small amounts of sarin. \u00a0This would not<\/em> be large scale, such as the enormous facilities established under Saddam.\u00a0 (He produced and used over 100,000 chemical rounds against Iran and the Kurds during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980’s.) \u00a0However it would be sufficient for ISIS to cause terror.<\/p>\n

The expertise to produce sarin could be drawn from a variety of sources.\u00a0 Iraqi experts remain in the area. \u00a0They may willingly or by force be called to the ISIS cause. \u00a0I would not want to be a chemist living in Mosul.<\/strong><\/p>\n

There are also other experts with experience in production of CW in Syria, Libya, Egypt and elsewhere. \u00a0Ideology, force or money could drive them to serve ISIS.<\/p>\n

This requirement may be key.\u00a0 ISIS needs to obtain the requisite precursor chemicals. \u00a0ISIS has been adept at getting illicit weapons, but getting precursor chemicals may be more challenging and intelligence agencies may be able to pick up indications of such activity.<\/p>\n

The concern of ISIS matched with WMD sounds like 2002 and the concerns of the Bush Administration over the \u201cnexus of terrorism and WMD.\u201d\u00a0 This threat did not materialize then, but that is no reason to ignore the risk now.\u00a0 ISIS is has territory, funds, and a global network of sympathetic supporters willing to die for their cause.<\/strong><\/p>\n

It is worth remembering that Aum Shinrikyo, the much smaller Japanese cult, produced enough sarin in a clandestine laboratory to create terror in the Tokyo subway system in 1995. \u00a0They had access to far fewer resources than ISIS.<\/p>\n

Hopefully, the US and other intelligence agencies have this risk near the top of their threat matrix. \u00a0ISIS appears to have used chemical agents locally.<\/p>\n

And, unlike Saddam, they seek to attack the West.\u00a0 Given all the horrors they have perpetrated, why wouldn\u2019t they use chemical weapons?<\/strong><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In 2016, ISIS may once again take its terror out of the region of its \u201ccaliphate.\u201d\u00a0 It had success in Paris last November and is losing ground in Iraq.\u00a0 Watch out for a new horror\u2014they may take chemical attacks overseas\u2014to … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[5,70,63,61,67,62,65,12,56,19,74],"tags":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=334"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":335,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/334\/revisions\/335"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=334"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=334"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=334"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}