Retaking Mosul from ISIS is clearly the next big military objective.\u00a0 Visits to Baghdad by SECDEF Ash Carter and SECSTATE John Kerry clearly presage this movement.\u00a0 Carter announced additional US forces and capabilities.\u00a0 President Obama’s meetings with the GCC clearly touched on next steps in Iraq.\u00a0 The gradual constriction of finances and resources around Mosul seems to be working.<\/p>\n
But Mosul is a very big city–population on the order of one million.\u00a0 This is not Falluja or Ramadi.<\/p>\n
Possibly the operation could go better than expected.\u00a0 ISIS could leave the city and retreat to Syria as the siege of Mosul goes on. The Iraq government may have very good intelligence inside the city and maybe they could infiltrate forces into the city and surprise ISIS. Maybe.<\/p>\n
It strikes me as more likely that ISIS will not readily cede this prize city of its new caliphate.\u00a0 It will be difficult to surprise ISIS.\u00a0 And it seems likely, they will use the residents as hostages.\u00a0 ISIS successfully used horror in their successful expansion in 2014 and 2015.\u00a0 What’s worse now is they have the resources to produce and use chemical munitions–and already have.\u00a0 The US has bombed sites they identified as associated with explosive and chemical weapons production including at Mosul University.\u00a0 Mosul University has especially good science facilities.\u00a0 It was a site that UN weapons inspectors kept under monitoring in the 1990’s.<\/p>\n
Will Iraqi forces move into Mosul if ISIS proceeds to use mustard or sarin agent against either military of civilian targets? It will be interesting to see if advancing Iraqi forces carry chemical protection gear. Will the Iraqi Council of Representatives support the government if thousands are being massacred in Mosul?\u00a0 I could see Iraqi forces stalling outside Mosul if the political will flags in the face of civilian casualties. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Retaking Mosul from ISIS is clearly the next big military objective.\u00a0 Visits to Baghdad by SECDEF Ash Carter and SECSTATE John Kerry clearly presage this movement.\u00a0 Carter announced additional US forces and capabilities.\u00a0 President Obama’s meetings with the GCC clearly … Continue reading
\nIt seems like the Obama administration is supporting progress toward “doing Mosul” before the end of his presidency.\u00a0 An attack on Mosul could go very<\/strong> badly and lead to the disintegration of the government in Baghdad. \u00a0 I hope our intelligence is really really good on this one.<\/p>\n