In February 1998, I was in Baghdad discussing the ongoing disputes between Iraq and the UN weapons inspectors with Saddam\u2019s key deputy Tariq Aziz. (I was the deputy chairman of the UN WMD inspection group called UNSCOM.) It was late night and Aziz had his usual Cohiba cigar filling the room with bluish smoke. The intended topic, appropriately, was chemical weapons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aziz cleared his throat and said, yes we\u2019ll get to chemical\nweapons, but would I indulge him in a different question, drawing on our long\nmutual dialogue over the years. I nodded\nand he proceeded to ask me, \u201cMr. Duelfer, what is an intern?\u201d <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Lewinsky affair had recently broken in Washington. It was huge news. Throughout 1998 the two dominant issues\nconsuming Washington were the Lewinsky affair and the contentious disputes over\naccess of WMD inspectors to sites in Iraq. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Iraqis did not understand the Lewinsky business. How could the last superpower be disabled by\nan affair with some 20-something in the White House? This was beyond Saddam\u2019s comprehension. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
However, in subsequent questioning after the 2003 war, when\nI was head of the Iraq Survey Group we explored extensively their thinking and\npolicy making with Saddam and his top lieutenants. It became clear that while Saddam did not\nunderstand why an inconsequential intern could hobble the president of the\nUnited States, he did understand the White House was distracted and weakened\u2014especially\nas scandal turned to impeachment. \nBaghdad took key decisions throughout the summer and fall of 1998 that\nultimately led to the end of UNSCOM\u2019s inspections in Iraq and four days of\nbombing beginning on December 16 by the US (with support from the UK, but with\nno consensus in the UN Security Council). \nIt turned out to be a good move by Iraq. \nInspectors were gone, and sanctions, while not formally lifted, were\ndefinitely crumbling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the midst of the bombing, President Clinton was impeached\nby the House in a vote on December 19. \nHowever, President Clinton was not removed from office as the senate did\nnot even come close to the 2\/3 number voting to convict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Twenty-one years later, another president is subject to\nimpeachment proceedings. The outcome and\ndebates are much the same when you go back and read the press coverage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What is not covered in the press are the calculations of\nforeign powers calculating whether the Washington is weakened or\ndistracted. Iran, North Korea, Russia,\nChina and virtually every nation on the planet are evaluating what the effect\nis on President Trump and US foreign policy. \nIs it a time to take advantage, to press ahead? Does it mean they should hold still until an\noutcome is clear? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Will the White House be more or less inclined to act\nmilitarily since that has typically be a good diversion. Cynics (and who isn\u2019t in Washington) must\nascribe some element of that to the decision to execute a drone strike on Qasem\nSoleimani. The same was said of the\nClinton White House and Secretary of State Madeleine Albright firmly stated\nthat the decisions of foreign policy were made independent of the turmoil in te\nWhite House. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
It\u2019s safe to say that our opponents around the world will\nsee this as weakness on the part of the United States, not just one political\nparty over another.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On a light-hearted note, if you\u2019re sick of the blather about\nimpeachment, watch the dark comedy movie, \u201cWar the Dog.\u201d Robert DeNiro plays a\nspin-doctor brought in by the White House whose occupant was caught in a\nscandal with an underage girl in the Oval office. The spin-doctor concludes that the best way to\ndistract attention from the scandal is to create a war. Dustin Hoffman plays a Hollywood producer who\ncooks up script and scenes for a war in Albany. \nThe media is taken in and there are twists and turns but the most\namazing thing is that the movie came out in 1997\u2014before<\/em><\/strong> the Lewinsky\nevents. Life imitates art. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In February 1998, I was in Baghdad discussing the ongoing disputes between Iraq and the UN weapons inspectors with Saddam\u2019s key deputy Tariq Aziz. (I was the deputy chairman of the UN WMD inspection group called UNSCOM.) It was late … Continue reading