{"id":443,"date":"2020-05-25T10:57:25","date_gmt":"2020-05-25T10:57:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/?p=443"},"modified":"2020-05-25T10:57:25","modified_gmt":"2020-05-25T10:57:25","slug":"corvid-19-and-industrial-policy-reconsideration","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/?p=443","title":{"rendered":"Corvid-19 and Industrial Policy Reconsideration"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The weak national response to Corvid-19 in the US will\nproduce a re-awakening of debate on national industrial policy.  Are there national interests that cannot be\nleft simply to the free market and shareholders seeking to maximize profit?  Yes, of course some<\/em>, certainly including defense industry.  But where are the limits and who\ndecides?  Time to rethink these issues.  Global supply chains have suddenly been\nrevealed to have surprising dependencies that were not considered from a\nnational security\/health perspective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not new.  I\nwas recently reading a classic book in its field, \u201cChemical Warfare\u201d by Curt\nWachtel written in 1941.  Wachtel had\nbeen a key scientist at the Kaiser Wilhelm Institute before and during World\nWar 1.  He subsequently became a US\ncitizen and worked on American defense programs.  Anticipating potential chemical weapons that\nthe US might confront in entering World War 2, his work highlighted the\nlinkages that were overlooked by many countries regarding chemical weapons\noffensive and defensive requirements. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wachtel noted that when Germany in 1916 decided to use\nmustard agent as a defensive weapon it would have to deal with eye injuries to\nsoldiers and civilians.  This required vaseline.  The only source was from the US and the\nBritish blockade cut that off.  They\nimmediately searched German and Austrian inventories and found only a few\nhundred pounds and immediately confiscated it. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Wachtel goes on to make the broader point governments need\nto identify and control critical items. \n\u201cThere must be a bureau, or expert, or committee for chemical and\nindustrial planning, not only for providing government agencies as well as\nprivate institutions and business.\u201d  Wachtel also notes that a balance must be\nachieved because, \u201cinterference of a bureaucracy may mean disaster.\u201d[i]<\/a>  <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Such planning comes naturally to China.  It\u2019s in the DNA of the Communist Party of\nChina.  Making no secret of its goals,\nChina, under Premier Li Keqiang issued a blueprint in 2015 for its industrial policies.  The goal was to move their industrial\ncapacity and expertise further up the supply chain in production and to leading\nedge in key technologies.   Their plan,\ncalled \u201cMade in China 2025\u201d, identified ten focal areas including biotechnology\nand medicines.  Midterm grades on their\nprogress by various outside industry observers rate their progress highly (https:\/\/www.lek.com\/sites\/default\/files\/insights\/pdf-attachments\/Chinas-Healthcare-Innovation-by-Made-in-China-2025-and-Implications-for-MNCs_JUL06.pdf).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Analysts note that China\u2019s emphasis in medicine is\nconsistent with other nations with an aging population (Premier Li is said to\nbe in charge of the Corvid-19 response). \nHowever, China has always had a strong national security, economic and\nprestige component in its decisions. \nIndustrial policy comes naturally to the leaders of the Communist\nParty.  President Xie\u2019s trademark Belt\nand Road initiative combines many of these goals in way that only a government\nwith heavy central direction over the economy can achieve.  It must be a high priority for Beijing to\nachieve a vaccine first. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the US, one fallout may be a broader view of federal roles\nin issues that can determine real risks to US security more broadly defined\nthat just military or intelligence. \nThese issues come up regularly but there is not a sustained\nconsideration of them in government. \nUnlike many countries, we do not have the equivalent of a US 2025\nprogram.  Politics and elections make\nsustained attention and sustained consensus on goals difficult if not impossible\ntoday.  Industrial policies in response\nto pandemics are one thing.  In\nrebuilding the economy with massive government infusions of resources we can\nexpect strong advocates in the upcoming electoral season for such actions to\naddress climate change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

The usual debates over industrial policy will re-ignite.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

[i]<\/a>\nWachtel, Curt, \u201cChemical Warfare\u201d, Chemical Publishing Co., Inc. Brooklyn New\nYork 1941 pp. 84-85.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The weak national response to Corvid-19 in the US will produce a re-awakening of debate on national industrial policy.  Are there national interests that cannot be left simply to the free market and shareholders seeking to maximize profit?  Yes, of … Continue reading →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":[],"categories":[98,78,93,97],"tags":[18,96],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443"}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=443"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":444,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/443\/revisions\/444"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=443"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=443"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/www.charlesduelfer.com\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=443"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}