As a thought experiment to see what’s coming in intelligence collection and analytics, consider the forensics associated with the recent Beirut disaster. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The event itself was obviously detected instantly by\nwitnesses all over the city. And\ninstantly, decision makers needed to know: \nWhat was it? Who caused it? Terrorists? \nState actors? Will there be\nfollow-on threats? Are there pending\nrisks to US citizens\/interests? <\/p>\n\n\n\n
With emerging capabilities for continuous global surveillance in various spectra, we are approaching a world where, for any given geo-spatial spot, data stores can be intensively analyzed forensically. Moreover with artificial intelligence methods, such troves of data can be searched to find meaning that will answer the immediate questions\u2014such as accountability.\u00a0 In essence, machines can answer the natural human questions, \u201cTell be everything relevant about this point and event regarding what, who and why?\u201d\u00a0 Evolving artificial intelligence searching all the databases on the planet will derive answers regarding correlations that humans could not.\u00a0 In fact, such analytics will surface relevant questions that were left unasked.\u00a0 And the answers will be out there in the expanding \u201cDataverse\u201c.<\/strong>\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n Current and historical data on everything<\/em><\/strong> is\naccumulating in the planet\u2019s data farms. \nSpace-based sensors, both commercial and government are proliferating\nfor imagery as well as infrared and other spectra\u2014and the capacity to store and\naccess such data is proliferating. Ship<\/p>\n\n\n\n Imagery and audio from the millions of cellphones around the\nplanet offer another surveillance tool. \nThe proliferation of public and private surveillance cameras has created\nanother obvious data trove. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The location of cellphones all over the planet can\ntheoretically be collected and stored. \nWhen an event of interest occurs how are individual ISP\u2019s (people with\ncellphones) moving about? Were there\nanomalous movements beforehand or afterward?<\/p>\n\n\n\n As more automobiles become directly linked to the Internet\nof things, movement of all autos can be analyzed with an eye toward forensic\nanalysis. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Imagine all the sources of data that are being collected and stored in the data farms scattered over the planet and then imagine being able to, in essence, run the tape backwards to see how the people and things got to the geo-spatial point where something happened.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n In the Beirut harbor case, how did the material accumulate\nat the point of explosion? Incrementally\nover years? Who were the people associated with the\ndeliveries? Shipping data and ship\npatterns now routinely collected and stored can be searched. (Even for the\nmildly curious. I noticed David Geffen\nwas anchored off Islesboro, Maine for the past couple nights. His 139-meter \u201cRising Sun\u201d yacht squawking\nidentifiable ship identification (AIS) data.) <\/p>\n\n\n\n And, of course masses of financial records are searchable. Imagine if you knew where every dollar in the\nworld was and could monitor them? It\u2019s\nnot such a huge leap.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Consider Beirut again, were there any uncorrelated financial\ntransactions whereby someone with advance knowledge might seek to profit (as\nwas the case before the 2014 Russian invasion of Crimea)?<\/p>\n\n\n\n Plume and chemical analysis of the explosion can be matched against collections of such data for explosions all over the planet.\u00a0 Widespread spectroscopic data will grow. Staring sensors for agriculture purposes will find other uses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The data are out there.\u00a0 The analytic tools that can sort and look for meaning in the data are evolving rapidly.\u00a0 Critical to dominating the coming Dataverse are two things. One is access<\/strong><\/em> to the data.\u00a0 In the first generation of the Internet, the US had access (we built the original systems) and could see email traffic\u2026a big leap forward.\u00a0 Google did the same commercial for commercial purposes. <\/p>\n\n\n\n In the coming generation, access to the Dataverse will be controlled by those who create the channels into and through it.\u00a0 This is why the issues of Chinese infrastructure plans for 5G and their extraordinary investment in AI are critical.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The second necessity is massive computing power. Quantum computing is vital. Our future depends upon it for both security and economic reasons.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n China may have been able to answer the questions about Beirut before anyone else.\u00a0 And, as things evolve, they may be able to anticipate more<\/em><\/strong>\u2026. not just do forensic analysis.\u00a0 These are long-term existential drivers that US leadership needs to consider and take concrete actions.\u00a0 \u00a0We are not ahead of the curve.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" As a thought experiment to see what’s coming in intelligence collection and analytics, consider the forensics associated with the recent Beirut disaster. The event itself was obviously detected instantly by witnesses all over the city. And instantly, decision makers needed … Continue reading