This analogy is too simple, but helps to think about the vise jaws that the Biden Administration now finds itself between.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The similarities: \nBoth Xie and Putin have maneuvered to be in power for the foreseeable future. The duration of \u201cforeseeable\u201d is limited by domestic\ndynamics not susceptible to outside understanding, much less manipulation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Both leaders have a desire to rebuild an empire they believe\nis historically founded. They both\naccrue domestic stature\/security to the extent they promote national\naggrandizement to include territorial gain. \nNationalism is good in their frame of reference. Both leaders gain more than they lose by\ndiminishing the United States. (Their behavior does not suggest belief in\n\u201cWin-Win\u201d vice \u201cZero Sum\u201d in any relevant timeframes.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Dis-similarities:\u00a0 Putin cannot afford to be as patient.\u00a0 He heads an inherently much weaker state, albeit with a lot of nuclear weapons, natural gas and geography. The Russian economy is weak and not strengthening.\u00a0 This implies a more fragile internal base.\u00a0 Putin can, however, leverage his military and energy advantages over weaker neighboring states in slices that are small enough to avoid unacceptable penalties.\u00a0 Nothing has caused a unified \u201cWest\u201d led by the United States to make him role back what he as seized by force.\u00a0 He has the advantage of having less to lose and more to gain. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Xi has a lot to lose. Chinese economic growth and expansion seems to be continuing at a decent pace. \u00a0His incremental territorial gains have been achieved on implicit not explicit military dominance.\u00a0 This has paid off in the South China Sea expansion and Hong Kong\u2014at virtually no cost.\u00a0 Probably not a Chinese proverb, but slowly boiling the frog seems to be working. Xi could have confidence of success in absorbing Taiwan (a very big economic prize) with the win coming garnished with another rollback of Western dominance.\u00a0 Probably there is a proverb along the lines of \u201crevenge is a dish best served cold\u2026.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
So we are now in circumstances where the apparently weaker United States is vulnerable to internal fractures open to external manipulation.\u00a0 It\u2019s as though the Chinese and Russians had discovered both the Permian basin in the US and hydraulic fracturing (\u201cfracking\u201d) technology. And Putin is riffing off the Xi lead to his own advantage.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Even some of our smaller, but strategic Allies see this.\u00a0 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg made a tough case publicly following a meeting with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba at NATO today.\u00a0 This former Norwegian Prime Minister gave a more potent case than Washington for pushing back against the inherently weak Putin.\u00a0 <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The best way to signal China is by pushing back against\nPutin. We need to interrupt their\nriff. If Ukraine falls due to limp\nWestern support, Taiwan doesn\u2019t stand a chance. Japan is watching carefully to\nsay nothing of the Gulf States, Africa, Argentina, etc. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
My guess is Bill Burns at CIA sees this, but there may be climate change fog elsewhere.\u00a0 Probably Wall Street realists see this. Watch Wall Street investments in Taiwan.\u00a0 Betting on an independent Taiwan next year is one thing. But going long on Taiwan companies?\u00a0 Not so much.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just before the Russian invasion of Crimea (shortly after the Olympics in Russia) there was a massive trade from Russian rubles into Japanese Yen. An indication of intentions especially given the absence of firewalls between policy decisions and Putin’s cronies. Watch for same in regarding Ukraine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There are important differences between Putin and Xi. Putin is more: L’audace, tourjours l’audace. And Xi more: A little impatience will spoil great gains. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Where are we? <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
This analogy is too simple, but helps to think about the vise jaws that the Biden Administration now finds itself between.\u00a0 The similarities: Both Xie and Putin have maneuvered to be in power for the foreseeable future. The duration of … Continue reading