The IAEA report, now circulating publicly, states clearly that Iran conducted nuclear weapon design related efforts before 2003 and between 2004 and 2009. Iran denies this. Now it is up to the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security Council to decide if they are going to give Iran a pass in the interest of letting the agreement go forward, or hold Iran to the commitment to explain its work as the agreement demands.
This was the first early test of the agreement. The IAEA has, despite political pressure, stuck to facts that can not be explained away. Their report will be condemned by Moscow as biased, but it adheres to the facts as known to the IAEA.
Washington will probably seek to explain away the importance of the report or the discrepancies. Secretary Kerry has laid the groundwork for this by saying the past is not important. What is important is the future non-nuclear work of Iran. Maybe he is correct, but to start this process with a lie and pushing aside inconvenient facts is not a good sign. Maybe Iran will comply with the agreement going forward and the international community may have bought some time and some will have a significant new trading partner.
But maybe not. The growing role of Iran all over the region, teamed with Russia, doesn’t look very promising.