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Author Archives: Charles Duelfer
Why wouldn’t IRGC play Oil Futures? Saddam did in the 1990’s.
Today’s volatility in oil markets and feverish trading in markets today reminds me of Saddam’s practices in the 1990’s. Oil reserves were very low. There were contentious political discussions in the UN Security Council concerning a relaxation of sanctions on Iraq oil … Continue reading
Posted in Gaza,Hamas, Israel, Global Shipping, Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia
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Coercive Disarmament in Iran: 1991 Iraq Model
The conflict with Iran will end with at least two elements: One will be some sort of political agreement to cease hostilities. Second will be an intrusive weapons inspection mechanism to account for the Iran nuclear program (and possibly other WMD … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, Chemical Weapons, Iran, Iraq, nuclear weapons, United Nations
Tagged Iran Nuclear, Iran Nuclear Agreement, Iraq, WMD
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The President is Wrong to Dismiss Allies
Thursday (22 January), President Trump was quoted saying our allies stayed back from the front lines in Afghanistan and, “We’ve never needed them… It has to be a two-way street”. At the same time, I happened to be attending a gathering … Continue reading
Venezuela: What Trump Learned from Iraq
From the description by President Trump and his top advisors, it’s clear that they have learned from mistakes the US made with Saddam in Iraq. Trump’s bold move in Venezuela may suffer from other challenges, but at least they won’t repeat … Continue reading
The “Successful” Strike on Iran
President Trump, Secretary of Defense Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Cain all expressed great satisfaction with the military achievement of bombing three critical nuclear sites in Iran. From the description of “Operation Midnight Hammer” provided by … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, China, Intelligence, Iran, nuclear weapons, Putin, Russia, WMD
Tagged China, Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, WMD
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Global Shipping: Can New Technology Leapfrog China’s Dominance?
I recently participated in a Council on Foreign Relations Task Force on Space. It concluded, not surprisingly, that the US must prioritize all elements of US space development or risk ceding leadership to China. The world now depends on space assets for … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, China, Global Shipping, Industrial Policy, Maritime Dominance
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DOGE and State Department
I would recommend anyone seeking to reduce the federal budget to begin by examining agency phone books—over time. I spent several years at State Department in the 1980’s and compared the 1984 annual directory (https://archive.org/details/telephonedirecto1984wash/page/n1/mode/2up?view=theater) to the current directory (https://www.state.gov/telephone-directory/). Note: … Continue reading
Posted in Defense Budget, DOGE, Intelligence, State Department
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Global Tensions Seen from Oslo
During a recent week in Oslo, I had the opportunity to talk with a variety of actors in government, defense industry, finance, military, and old friends. Perspectives seem to have evolved since my last visit about a year earlier. More worry … Continue reading
Posted in China, NATO, Putin, Russia, Space
Tagged China, NATO, Norway, Norwegian Defense, Russia, Stoltenberg, Ukraine
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Houthis in Space, or: Ruining it for All Mankind
The acceleration of commercial, military and scientific space activities in recent years has been astonishing. Technology has evolved to point where space-based activities are demonstrably very lucrative. Satellites in low earth orbit are increasing exponentially (really, see chart below). Launch costs have plummeted and capabilities … Continue reading
Israel and Iran – Remember 1991 Iraq
In January 1991 I happened to be running the task force in the State Department Operations Center set up for Desert Storm. President George H. W. Bush had gone to enormous effort to assemble a coalition of over 30 countries to … Continue reading
Posted in Allies, Chemical Weapons, Gaza, Gaza,Hamas, Israel, Iran, Iraq, Israel, nuclear weapons
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