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Category Archives: Iran
Iraq – Avoiding the Next Insurgency
It is blindingly obvious that while ISIS soon may be expelled from Mosul, absent any further US policy change, there will be a renewed insurgency fueled by disaffected Sunni groups. This is depressingly similar to Spring 2003. I was in … Continue reading
Can Iraq be a Solution Instead of a Problem?
There is an opportunity for the US to recalibrate its approach and objectives in Iraq. It could be a positive rather than a negative and its tied to our approach to Iran. The following piece ran in the Cipher Brief … Continue reading
Posted in Iran, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS
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Mosul and Washington – Between Administrations
The period of time prior to a presidential election is always a vulnerable time for the United States. It is especially so at the end of a two-term administration. The current administration is less focused on new policies than locking … Continue reading
CW in Syria – Assad will be around longer than Obama
Consider: Would the events below and ponder whether they would be taking place if the Obama administration were not so obviously just running out the clock? It’s a safe bet that Bashar al-Assad will be in power longer than Barack … Continue reading
In Iraq–ISIS is Symptom, the Problem is Worse
In Iraq, Washington is treating a symptom and avoiding the underlying problem. Washington is busy with ISIS in Iraq and reporting substantial progress. On June 28th, Ambassador Brett McGurk reported to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee (http://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/062816_McGurk_Testimony.pdf) on progress the … Continue reading
Looming Disaster of “Doing Mosul”
If President Obama pushes ahead to expel ISIS from the major city of Mosul in Iraq, without much better preparation of the post-conflict circumstances, the aftermath with be a disaster. Iraq was bad when he inherited the problem, it may … Continue reading
ISIS and CW in Europe
Again this week ISIS has conducted a major terrorist attack in Europe by ISIS. By targeting crowds of people at transportation hubs used by millions, they appear to have been trying to kill as many as possible with as much … Continue reading
Iran Nuclear Deal – IAEA calls Iran out Weapon Design Work
The IAEA report, now circulating publicly, states clearly that Iran conducted nuclear weapon design related efforts before 2003 and between 2004 and 2009. Iran denies this. Now it is up to the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security … Continue reading
Posted in Intelligence, Iran, United Nations
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Iranian General Killed in Syria – US Iran Policy – Nuclear Deal Prospects
The Iran nuclear deal would be a whole lot more palatable if we had a clear picture of a robust Iran strategy that included actions to punish the part of the Iranian government that has killed so many Americans. Nuclear … Continue reading
Posted in Intelligence, Iran, ISIS, Syria, United Nations, WMD
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Iran Verification – Wobbly
Verification is wobbly. Yes the provisions are better than other IAEA systems, but this is nothing compared to the access and techniques used in Iraq. Moreover, it is very sensitive to how aggressive the IAEA intends to be. And there … Continue reading
Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, Russia, United Nations, WMD
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