Russia | Charles Duelfer

Category Archives: Russia

Syria CW Use – Why?

The headline news of Syrian use of Sarin last month has faded from memory.   Even the US strike against the Syrian base at Khan Sheikhoun seems to have sunk beneath the daily harangue of Trump news. The military strike seems … Continue reading

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Syria Strike – Before and After – Watch for Russian Action in Ukraine

Putin will respond to action as would be expected.  It is a safe bet that Russia will amp up pressure in other areas such as Ukraine. Secretary of State Tillerson, who, with General McMaster put forward a strong case for … Continue reading

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Syria CW – Time to dust off Obama’s military options

Syria certainly looks to have used chemical agent in Khan Sheikhun. This instance is a really big deal for a number of reasons–and President Trump will need to act. First, whereas Syria has been dropping chlorine in “barrel bombs” over … Continue reading

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Trump and Intelligence Community

Does the President need to know what is true or what everyone thinks is true?   This question that did not first arise with Donald Trump’s election.  It is a function of the growing power of social media.  Political leaders … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iraq, Russia, WMD | 1 Comment

CW in Syria – Assad will be around longer than Obama

Consider:  Would the events below and ponder whether they would be taking place if the Obama administration were not so obviously just running out the clock?  It’s a safe bet that Bashar al-Assad will be in power longer than Barack … Continue reading

Posted in Iran, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, Mosul, Russia, Sunni, Syria, Syria CW, Syria CW, United Nations, WMD | Leave a comment

Iran Verification – Wobbly

Verification is wobbly. Yes the provisions are better than other IAEA systems, but this is nothing compared to the access and techniques used in Iraq.  Moreover, it is very sensitive to how aggressive the IAEA intends to be.  And there … Continue reading

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A Nuclear Deal?

Iran needs this more than US.   The sanctions hurt them.  If there is an agreement, they will get out of sanctions much faster than if they simply wait for sanctions to erode or collapse. What does the US get? … Continue reading

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Looming Iran Nuclear Deal

Secretary Kerry in a question and answer session yesterday seemed to be saying that Iran’s progress in weaponization, that is developing and testing the design of a nuclear weapon is not important for the completion of a deal with Iran. … Continue reading

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Inspectors in Iran-Political Science and Physical Science

In the President’s announcement of the Iran Nuclear deal, he highlighted the authorities of the IAEA inspectors under the new agreement–even though the details are not worked out.  This will not be the case.  The UN inspectors in Iraq had … Continue reading

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Monitoring Iran? Don’t bet on it…

There are a series of massive problems with the Iran nuclear agreement. A key one is the assertion of tough inspections. The diminished US objective of “limiting” Iran’s enrichment capacity to a point where there would be a one-year “breakout” … Continue reading

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