Russia | Charles Duelfer

Category Archives: Russia

Trump and Intelligence Community

Does the President need to know what is true or what everyone thinks is true?   This question that did not first arise with Donald Trump’s election.  It is a function of the growing power of social media.  Political leaders … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iraq, Russia, WMD | 1 Comment

CW in Syria – Assad will be around longer than Obama

Consider:  Would the events below and ponder whether they would be taking place if the Obama administration were not so obviously just running out the clock?  It’s a safe bet that Bashar al-Assad will be in power longer than Barack … Continue reading

Posted in Iran, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, Mosul, Russia, Sunni, Syria, Syria CW, Syria CW, United Nations, WMD | Leave a comment

Iran Verification – Wobbly

Verification is wobbly. Yes the provisions are better than other IAEA systems, but this is nothing compared to the access and techniques used in Iraq.  Moreover, it is very sensitive to how aggressive the IAEA intends to be.  And there … Continue reading

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A Nuclear Deal?

Iran needs this more than US.   The sanctions hurt them.  If there is an agreement, they will get out of sanctions much faster than if they simply wait for sanctions to erode or collapse. What does the US get? … Continue reading

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Looming Iran Nuclear Deal

Secretary Kerry in a question and answer session yesterday seemed to be saying that Iran’s progress in weaponization, that is developing and testing the design of a nuclear weapon is not important for the completion of a deal with Iran. … Continue reading

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Inspectors in Iran-Political Science and Physical Science

In the President’s announcement of the Iran Nuclear deal, he highlighted the authorities of the IAEA inspectors under the new agreement–even though the details are not worked out.  This will not be the case.  The UN inspectors in Iraq had … Continue reading

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Monitoring Iran? Don’t bet on it…

There are a series of massive problems with the Iran nuclear agreement. A key one is the assertion of tough inspections. The diminished US objective of “limiting” Iran’s enrichment capacity to a point where there would be a one-year “breakout” … Continue reading

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ISIS or ISIL or IS? Does it matter?

The President gave his speech on strategy towards ISIL…except everyone calls it ISIS in the West. ISIL is Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and ISIS is Islamic State in Iraq and Syria or al Shams, which is roughly … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, Russia, Sunni, Terrorism | Leave a comment

ISIS – Next Steps

The President is now stuck with the ISIS problem. It is his, not former President Bush’s. The rest of his term may be defined by how he deals with ISIS, in some ways as Bush was defined by how he … Continue reading

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Obama Learns of Malaysian Aircraft Destruction form Putin?!

The Malaysian aircraft destruction is tragic, but not unique. Commercial Airliners have been shot down before.  In 1983 the Soviet air defense fighters shot down a Korean Airlines 747 that had strayed off course, impinged on Soviet airspace and the … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Malaysian Airline Shootdown, Russia, Ukraine, United Nations | Leave a comment