Today’s volatility in oil markets and feverish trading in markets today reminds me of Saddam’s practices in the 1990’s.  Oil reserves were very low.  There were contentious political discussions in the UN Security Council concerning a relaxation of sanctions on Iraq oil sales to provide resources for the relief of the Iraqi population—what became known as the “Oil-for-Food” program.  Any hint of an agreement sent futures zooming or falling.  

The talks went on for a long time. Saddam’s representatives in Switzerland engaged in the futures trades.   We found afterwards that positive statements from Baghdad caused swings, and the regime actors traded on advance knowledge. A revenue stream that was serious and endured so long as the talks continued. The longer the talks took, the longer that revenue opportunity continued. 

I can’t imagine that the IRGC or other Iranian actors are not doing the same.  They don’t need to know anything special, just need to know a comment will be made that implies threat or non-threat to oil market.