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Author Archives: Charles Duelfer

Looming Disaster of “Doing Mosul”

If President Obama pushes ahead to expel ISIS from the major city of Mosul in Iraq, without much better preparation of the post-conflict circumstances, the aftermath with be a disaster.  Iraq was bad when he inherited the problem, it may … Continue reading

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Mosul – Prepare for Chemical Weapons and Civilian Casualties

Retaking Mosul from ISIS is clearly the next big military objective.  Visits to Baghdad by SECDEF Ash Carter and SECSTATE John Kerry clearly presage this movement.  Carter announced additional US forces and capabilities.  President Obama’s meetings with the GCC clearly … Continue reading

Posted in Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, ISIS Chemical Weapons, Saudi Arabia, Sunni, WMD | Leave a comment

ISIS and CW in Europe

Again this week ISIS has conducted a major terrorist attack in Europe by ISIS. By targeting crowds of people at transportation hubs used by millions, they appear to have been trying to kill as many as possible with as much … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, Syria CW, WMD | 1 Comment

ISIS CW Attacks in Europe or Beyond?

In 2016, ISIS may once again take its terror out of the region of its “caliphate.”  It had success in Paris last November and is losing ground in Iraq.  Watch out for a new horror—they may take chemical attacks overseas—to … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, ISIS Chemical Weapons, Sunni, Syria, Syria CW, Terrorism, United Nations, WMD | Leave a comment

Iran Nuclear Deal – IAEA calls Iran out Weapon Design Work

The IAEA report, now circulating publicly, states clearly that Iran conducted nuclear weapon design related efforts before 2003 and between 2004 and 2009.  Iran denies this. Now it is up to the IAEA Board of Governors and the UN Security … Continue reading

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Iranian General Killed in Syria – US Iran Policy – Nuclear Deal Prospects

The Iran nuclear deal would be a whole lot more palatable if we had a clear picture of a robust Iran strategy that included actions to punish the part of the Iranian government that has killed so many Americans.  Nuclear … Continue reading

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Iran Verification – Wobbly

Verification is wobbly. Yes the provisions are better than other IAEA systems, but this is nothing compared to the access and techniques used in Iraq.  Moreover, it is very sensitive to how aggressive the IAEA intends to be.  And there … Continue reading

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A Nuclear Deal?

Iran needs this more than US.   The sanctions hurt them.  If there is an agreement, they will get out of sanctions much faster than if they simply wait for sanctions to erode or collapse. What does the US get? … Continue reading

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Looming Iran Nuclear Deal

Secretary Kerry in a question and answer session yesterday seemed to be saying that Iran’s progress in weaponization, that is developing and testing the design of a nuclear weapon is not important for the completion of a deal with Iran. … Continue reading

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Judy Miller’s Book

“The Story” provides a fascinating perspective on a terrible period.  For those who want to look at the Iraq mess from various angles, this will add a valuable perspective (she quotes me in it, so I may not be unbiased). … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iraq, United Nations, WMD | 2 Comments