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Category Archives: Iran

Iran Verification – Wobbly

Verification is wobbly. Yes the provisions are better than other IAEA systems, but this is nothing compared to the access and techniques used in Iraq.  Moreover, it is very sensitive to how aggressive the IAEA intends to be.  And there … Continue reading

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A Nuclear Deal?

Iran needs this more than US.   The sanctions hurt them.  If there is an agreement, they will get out of sanctions much faster than if they simply wait for sanctions to erode or collapse. What does the US get? … Continue reading

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Looming Iran Nuclear Deal

Secretary Kerry in a question and answer session yesterday seemed to be saying that Iran’s progress in weaponization, that is developing and testing the design of a nuclear weapon is not important for the completion of a deal with Iran. … Continue reading

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Policy and Intelligence

There has always been a debate about the relationship between the Intelligence Community and the Policy leadership.  The idea was that those charged with intelligence should stick to intelligence collection and assessments.  For the past few weeks, one of the … Continue reading

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Inspectors in Iran-Political Science and Physical Science

In the President’s announcement of the Iran Nuclear deal, he highlighted the authorities of the IAEA inspectors under the new agreement–even though the details are not worked out.  This will not be the case.  The UN inspectors in Iraq had … Continue reading

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Monitoring Iran? Don’t bet on it…

There are a series of massive problems with the Iran nuclear agreement. A key one is the assertion of tough inspections. The diminished US objective of “limiting” Iran’s enrichment capacity to a point where there would be a one-year “breakout” … Continue reading

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Iran Nuclear Deal?

The volume of opinions on the potential deal concerning Iran’s nuclear capacity is deafening. I risk adding to the noise. One thoughtful voice with long experience working on the Administration’s part is Robert Einhorn. He just offered the case for … Continue reading

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Who’s Happy in Iraq?

Watching Iraq and the US actions there is disheartening, unless of course you are Qassem Suleimani, commander of Iran’s notorious Quds force. Suleimani and the Iraqi Shia militia he largely directs, are doing quite well (see the happy chap in … Continue reading

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Iran: How bad a deal is worse than no deal?

The momentum to agree to something with Iran on their nuclear program is obvious even considering the public comments cautioning that a deal may not happen. Discussion now centers on how long of a breakout lead-time a deal would create. … Continue reading

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ISIS or ISIL or IS? Does it matter?

The President gave his speech on strategy towards ISIL…except everyone calls it ISIS in the West. ISIL is Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant and ISIS is Islamic State in Iraq and Syria or al Shams, which is roughly … Continue reading

Posted in Intelligence, Iran, Iraq, ISIL, ISIS, Russia, Sunni, Terrorism | 1 Comment